[clett]

Check out what's being reported over at EVworld right now:

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=859

EnergyCS reckon that by "early 2006" they will have their Plug-in Prius upgrade option for sale "between $10,000 to $12,000".

Valence reckon the batteries will last 8-10 years.

Sales will begin in California only. Escape, Lexus and Highlander hybrids next in line to get the plug-in options.

8)

If people buy them, Toyota could be more prepared to bring forward release of their own plug-in hybrids!

 

[KTPhil]

Okay, its early morning and my math may not be at 100% yet (coffee notwithstanding), but here goes.

$12K, lasts 8 years. Ignoring interest, that means to pay back you would have to save $125 per month in gas, which at $2.50/gal and 50mpg is about 2500 miles per month. Drive less and it doesn't pay.

No thanks.

 

[paul16451]

Okay, its early morning and my math may not be at 100% yet (coffee notwithstanding), but here goes.

$12K, lasts 8 years. Ignoring interest, that means to pay back you would have to save $125 per month in gas, which at $2.50/gal and 50mpg is about 2500 miles per month. Drive less and it doesn't pay.

No thanks.

Thats only about 85 miles a day, and I know plenty of people in my area who drive that on a round-trip commute...it would definitely sell well here, I think.

 

[KTPhil]

20 working daya x 125 miles/day is 2500 miles per month.

Figuring in the time value of money for the $12K investment, that payback point is more like 150-175 miles/day. The range of the car in EV mode is 60 miles, so given that for those miles you arein regular ICE mode for 2/3 of the drive, and given the cost to recharge overnight, are you ever breaking even?

 

[hyperion]

Plus, I doubt the batteries would take this type of charging without giving marginal life. The dollar amount is prohibitable and it won't happen (except maybe with a govt grant) as long as there is a drop of oil in the ground!

 

[tstreet]

And don't forget that your warranty will be voided. Such (not) a deal.

 

[KTPhil]

I don't mean to sound so negative about. I only want to point out the economics of the conversion don't pencil out... today.

But leaders like this experiment lead the way to other solutions that may turn out to make economic sense. It also shows how versatile the HSD concept has turned out to be.

 

[Tadashi]

If it dropped down to around $5k I would consider it. I only spend about $30 a month in gas so it would take me about 33 yrs to break even.

My daily commute is about 40 mi round trip and I would be able to plug in at work. I would probably have to put that gas preservative in my tank to keep my gas from going bad.

 

[An04Prius]

EnergyCS reckon that by "early 2006" they will have their Plug-in Prius upgrade option for sale "between $10,000 to $12,000".

In my opinion, too big a number; will not sell except to tinkerers, hobbyists, "interesting to fool around with it" types...

Add another $10K, and get a 2nd Prius instead !!

I say Toyota will probably add it to the base car when they can get it to 2-3K$ MSRP. Closer to 2K to get volume sales.

 

[clett]

I don't dispute for a minute that the $10k pricetag won't pay itself back in gas savings for most users - that's not the issue!

The point is that this is an extremely environmentally friendly car, and some people will buy it - just not the mainstream - yet.

These early adopters (who I agree with An04Prius are likely to be the tinkerers and hobbyists!) will provide the stimulus required for the companies involved to start making volume production savings, and working out how to put together the package cheaper and cheaper with time. In fact Valence are working on this right now.

Then, with decent volume and established manufacturing techniques (remember the current vehicle is only a one-off special at the moment!), the costs of all the components should come down to around the $2-3k pricepoint that An04Prius suggested would be a good price for a factory fit "plug-in" option ($200 per kWh, or $1,900 for the whole pack, is already achievable with other types of LiIon batteries).

Sat nav was hugely expensive once, now look at it! You're looking at the next step for the Prius, and Toyota themselves are already working on this very thing.

 

[mjb_2]

Hey, I'm new to the prius and I'm trying to figure out waht a plug in is? :?: I know this sounds stupid, but I'm new. Brakes needed!!

 

[Astrowoman]

Hey, I'm new to the prius and I'm trying to figure out waht a plug in is?

Recharge the HV battery from plugging into a source (i.e. wall socket).

 

[drash]

I think you justify it by looking at it from a point to save gas and not necessarily money. Also if you are interested in it from an engineering viewpoint, the knowledge received would be invaluable if other variables could be recorded along with the operation. This isn't really any different from someone who bought a normal car and tricked it out with a supercharger, turbocharger, spoilers, huge tires, chrome, etc.. It would be a performance enhancer, but in this case would be used for perfectly legal reasons. I know I've been seen as negative in my past questioning on this forum and PriusChat about this technology (ask clett), but I do believe I don't know enough about the details and long term operation. I would be really interested if someone did it and kept us informed about its operation.

 

[Darwood]

Can someone rerun those payback numbers with a value of $5 a gallon?
I fully expect a $0.50 to $1.00 increase per year, so in 3-4 years, 4-5$ gas could be a reality. (How can bottled water cost more than gas?). Unless we stop buying cheap plastic (oil based) goods from China, they will begin to outcompete the US for oil resources (with our money, via Wal-Mart and our national debt that China owns a large part of).

By the time gas hit 4-5$ in a few years, I expect most new cars in the US will be either hybrid or biodeisel, but I expect japanese cars to all be plug in hybrids or electric. Which is exactly how today's hybrid got started. Remember, the Japanese have essentially zero oil reserves and very little arable land to grow biofuels.

So my question is, if you invested in a Prius+ now (assuming averge car usage and assuming gas prices hit 4-5$ in a few years) then what cost would be the cutoff? 7K? 5K?

 

[Canadian Prius]

Look around you. The world is the way it is because the sole criteria for almost everything comes from the bottom line. Does it make economic sense? Do it. Does it fail the economic test? Don't do it.

Trees growing in the forest gain about 2% fibre per year. Cut them down, sell the wood, and put the money in a good investment, and you make 10% per year. It's a no brainer... cut down all the trees.

Same with all the fish in the ocean. Same with all the petroleum underground.

As long as the economic bottom line is the only thing we look at, we will gradually poison and destroy our environment. When that's accomplished, check out the bottom line and see what's left. Quality of life? Real prosperity? Nope. Just a dead planet.

 

[Darwood]

Some of that logic is overly simplistic.
As trees are cut down and fewer remain, the price of lumber goes up. Hence, regardless of the 2% growth, the monetary value of a stand of trees will rise much faster than the 2%. The same will be true of oil.

Held resources such as a capped oil well, or 100 acres of hardwood trees will become more valuable sources of investment than the stock market. I think this is happening already, only it is primarily seen in home investment. Home values have risen at higher than the stock market for years now as investors feel they get a better return by putting money into their home instead of stocks. The problem with that, is that if the economy tanks (local or national), so does the home value.

Besides, 10% investment return is a myth. How has your stock portfolio done since 9/11? Seems to me the dow is at the level it was in 2001, so those investments have remained the same or even dropped if you factor in inflation.

As resources are consumed, I predict we will see hoarding of resources going forward, as investors put money there instead of in companies. This always spurs alternatives, even though the resources they are intended to substitute are not gone, just more expensive and with no stability of availability.

 

[clett]

As long as the economic bottom line is the only thing we look at, we will gradually poison and destroy our environment.

Yup, as long as it's cheaper to make things work by burning fossil fuels, that's what the whole world will continue to do. Economics rule.


But, that doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing....

Throughout the last century the cheapest way of making electricity was to burn coal, and today that costs about 2 cents per kilowatt-hour. Waaaay cheaper than solar PV etc (20-30 cents per kilowatt-hour) so, it's a bit of a no-brainer to use it.

The cheapest transport fuels were those found from drilling into the near-surface oil deposits, vast quantities of which meant a barrel of oil costing only $20-40. Bargain!

But these days are interesting times, because the renewables sector is not only starting to close in on these prices, it's set to soon smash them completely!

Wind power over here with the latest big turbines is set to dip to only 1 cent per kilowatt-hour - half the price of coal. And stirling-cycle solar power appears to be able to beat coal on price too.

Algae-derived biodiesel, currently being made by forward-thinking startup companies in the US, is set to be a cheaper feedstock not just for transportation needs, but most of the hydrocarbon based industries too! Should they be allowed to continue, drilled oil will soon become more expensive than renewable oil.

As the Saudi oil minister himself has said, it won't be a lack of oil or coal that will bring an end to the fossil-fuel economy. It will be market forces instead.

Hooray for the markets!

:wink: